The Stan Effect — How a T. rex Redefined the Fossil Market (2020 to 2025)
Watching History Happen
I still remember watching Christie’s 2020 livestream of Stan the T. rex.
Like many dealers, I expected a record—perhaps twelve million, maybe a little more—but when the bidding surged past twenty million and the hammer finally fell at $27.5 million ($31.8 million with fees), the collective sense of disbelief was palpable. We knew Stan would set a new benchmark, but no one anticipated it would obliterate Sue’s long-standing record.
In that instant, the ground shifted. The sale didn’t just set a price; it reset the entire framework through which fossils were valued, framed, and even imagined.
What The Stan Effect Really Was
Stan’s sale was a catalyst—a single, spectacular event that triggered a feedback loop of attention and ambition.
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Record price → media frenzy.
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Media frenzy → new entrants.
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New entrants → higher bids.
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Higher bids → more headlines.
This self-reinforcing cycle—what I call The Stan Effect—didn’t just raise valuations. It reframed fossils as cultural and financial assets with art-world credibility. Under theatrical lighting in the 20th Century Evening Sale, Stan was presented not as a specimen but as an object of desire, sharing a stage with Rothko and Picasso.
The result? Fossils were no longer confined to natural history auctions or museum vaults; they entered the same conversations as modern art, design, and rare collectibles.
The Stan Effect: a self-reinforcing cycle that reshaped the fossil market. Stan’s record-breaking sale in 2020 ignited a global media frenzy, attracted new collectors, drove higher bids, and ultimately established fossils as cultural and financial assets on par with fine art.
The Years After: From Curiosity to Trophy
What followed confirmed that Stan wasn’t an anomaly—it was a realignment.
- Big John the Triceratops (Hôtel Drouot, 2021): $7.7 million.
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Hector the Deinonychus (Christie’s 2022): $12.4 million.
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Gorgosaurus (Sotheby’s 2022): $6.07 million.
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Apex the Stegosaurus (Sotheby’s 2024): $44.6 million — a new record.
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Juvenile Ceratosaurus (Sotheby’s 2025): $30.5 million.
These results — and others — cemented a two-tier market:
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a trophy tier of museum-quality skeletons commanding art-level prices, and
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a collector tier of smaller fossils whose value remains steady, tied to aesthetics and science rather than spectacle.
But the ripple effects went further. In the years immediately following Stan, even individual fossils — dinosaur teeth, claws, and horns — saw a surge in demand as new collectors sought accessible entry points into the market. Prices for high-quality, well-prepared examples climbed sharply through 2022 and 2023 before stabilizing by 2024, signalling a more balanced and sustainable ecosystem.
Fossils had become the new frontier of cultural capital—objects that could live simultaneously in museums, art fairs, and private portfolios.
A fossilized T. rex foot claw — symbolizing the post-2020 rise in demand for individual dinosaur fossils such as teeth, claws, and horns. Source: Fossil Realm
Phillips Enters the Scene
Now, in 2025, Phillips is extending that trajectory with Cera, a juvenile Triceratops estimated at $2.5–3.5 million.
The specimen will headline a curated group of natural history treasures in Phillips’s Modern & Contemporary Art Evening Sale in New York—a first for the auction house.
Triceratops skeleton at National Science Museum, Tokyo. Credit: Conty, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0.
For a company known for art, design, and watches, this is a bold evolution. Phillips has brought in external expertise to oversee the new category—a signal that they recognize how delicate this balance is between spectacle and substance.
The question now is whether Phillips, without the deep fossil clientele of Christie’s or Sotheby’s, can realize comparable prices. My view? It will depend less on hype than on trust — transparency in provenance, respect for science, credibility with both collectors and scholars — and on continued strong promotion to reach the right global audience.
If Phillips succeeds on those fronts, Cera could represent not just a sale but a maturation of the market Stan helped ignite.
The New Fossil Economy
From Stan to Cera, fossils have crossed the threshold into a new kind of economy—one where science, culture, and capital are interdependent. We now see skeletons displayed at art fairs, on fractional ownership platforms, and loaned by private collectors to major museums.
This crossover is thrilling, but it also carries new responsibilities: authenticity must be verified, provenance documented, and restoration disclosed. The age of dinosaurs as cultural commodities has arrived—but the difference between enduring legacy and passing spectacle will rest on expertise, integrity, and discernment.
Looking Ahead
Phillips’ upcoming sale will be an important litmus test for how far this new fossil economy has matured. Estimates may be conservative, but momentum and curiosity have a way of amplifying in this market. Whether Cera surpasses expectations or not, the signal is clear: fossils have fully entered the cultural mainstream.
For a closer look at the human side of this transformation — the collectors, connoisseurs, investors, and institutions driving demand — see our companion piece, The Five Personas of Fossil Collecting.
Sources
Christie’s — "20th Century Week total surpasses $387 million, driven by new global auction format", October 6, 2020.
Phillips — Press Release: “Introducing ‘Out of This Wolrd’”, September 24, 2025.
Artnet News — “Rare Baby Triceratops Fossil Poised for Mammoth Sale,” September 25, 2025.